Thursday, February 16, 2012

Bipolar Disorder


Bipolar disorder is a condition in which people go back and forth between periods of a very good or irritable mood and depression. The "mood swings" between mania and depression can be very quick. People suffering from bipolar disorder tend to toggle between going out spending all their money and feeling at the top of the world and slip in maniacally depressive state couple of weeks later feeling that the world is coming to an end.
I have a friend who has been suffering from this ailment for the last few months. He is called Mr Market. Mr Market was going through this really depressive phase in the months of Nov and Dec where everything on this planet appeared to be going wrong. Greece was going under, Anna Hazare was fasting, Power sector was in doldrums, government was twiddling their thumbs, corruption was everywhere-  telecom, mining etc.  Of course Mr Market's friend's, Mr Economic Times and Mr CNBC who as opposed to cheering Mr Market up seem to have aided this state of mind by wallowing in the same depressive state. After-all what are friends for if they cant stick together and wallow in misery. 
As the bells tolled to ring in the new year, Mr Market suddenly came out of his depressive room and walked into sunshine. Was it the drinking on the new years eve or just a cocktail of liquidity and dopamine that he injected, Mr Market felt he was on top of the world.
Buy Buy Buy and he wants to buy everything on this planet. The world has changed, the sun is shinning, Greece might be going down but that’s for the Germans to worry, Anna Hazare has been having hearty meals off late, who needs power when we have hope, and the corrupt have existed for 2000 years of human history so whats the big deal etc.
Mr Markets friends Mr Economic Times and Mr CNBC seem to be coaxing him into pulling those credit cards out and go on a binge. I m told Mr Market and his friends were last seen at the Mid & Small Cap Mall buying everything in sight. Microcap market is next on the cards followed by the TIP market. Mr Market’s old friend Mr Brokerage House who has been suffering with Volume Disorder for the last one year has recovered and is gradually joining in helping Mr Market in his buying binge.
Mr Market’s other close friend Mr Merchant Banker is planning to bring his old sweethearts Ms “IPO 1”, Ms “IPO 2”, Ms “IPO 3”, Ms “IPO 4”, Ms “IPO for Suckers” to the party. Ms IPO’s were on a sabbatical for the last year spending time with Mr SEBI on a workout regime getting in shape. Shape or no shape a women become more attractive when u r drunk which holds true for Ms IPO’s.
In all this, though Mr Market is a close friend and I like to spend a lot of time with him, for some reason our mood swings are inversely correlated. I was in such a ecstatic state in December and am beginning to get morose now.
Gets me to wonder whether it is Mr Market or I who suffers from bipolar disorder.

Here’s a few lines from a nice song by the “Carpenters” dedicated to you my friend Mr Market 
Top of the World
Such a feelin's comin' over me 
There is wonder in 'most ev'ry thing I see
Not a cloud in the sky, got the sun in my eyes

And I won't be surprised if it's a dream
Everything I want the world to be
Is now comin' true especially for me

9 comments:

Raja said...

Wow!! So well written..

Ninad Kunder said...

Thanks Raja

Mahesh said...

Very nice article

Ninad Kunder said...

Thanks mahesh

Anonymous said...

Nice !

Its really amazing how the market sentiments change within few days.

As investors we always learn and are rarely right in timing.

Yogesh Bang said...

Excellent article and very creative :-)

Regards

Yogesh

JK said...

HI Ninad,

Sesa- Sterlite Merger. Swap ratio is 3:5.
I can buy 5 sterlite at Rs 590, sell 3 sesa in futures at Rs 687.. and make Rs 97 in the process..

Am I missing something??
What are risks other than event & time risk?
Please suggest.

Ninad Kunder said...

Hi JK

Theoretically yes, but i would suspect that when it opens for trade, some of this arbitrage will get wiped out.

Also the event and time risk is significant considering the plethora of courts and regulators that this deal needs to go thru.

The additional joker in the pack could be how the institutional investors react to the merger ratio and whether there is any push back on that front.

Cheers

Ninad

Ninad Kunder said...

Thanks Yogesh